XKDR Newsletter - Issue 41
Judicial data analysis • Nighttime lights • Russia-Ukraine war • GST reform • Digital fraud • Arbitration vs judiciary • Urban governance • New episodes of Big Ideas and EiE and more
Shedding light on the Russia–Ukraine War
In a new working paper, Rounak Hande, Ayush Patnaik, Ajay Shah, and Susan Thomas use nighttime lights data to study the economic impact of the Russia–Ukraine war. The paper uncovers economic trends in both countries that remain hidden in official wartime statistics. They find that Russia's aggregate nighttime lights remained flat from 2022 to 2025, and that the country's Yamal-Nenets gas-producing region has shown strong economic activity despite reports of declining gas production. Ukraine’s nighttime lights fell by 50% after the invasion, with only partial recovery by 2025. The war has also shifted economic activity westward in Ukraine and eastward in Russia, reflecting changing regional dynamics and the impact of sanctions and conflict.
Read the full paper here.
DATA RELEASE
Case life-cycle data for commercial cases
We are releasing a unique dataset that contains case life-cycle information on commercial disputes in the Bombay High Court and insolvency cases at the Mumbai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). The dataset contains information including filing dates, hearing dates, and connected matters. This data is useful for answering questions on case timelines and processes, such as the time taken from filing to first hearing or the number of hearings that a case takes until disposal. This dataset is designed to support decision making by litigants, policy makers and court administrators.
You can download the data and access some key insights here.
OP-ED & COMMENTARY
In his column for the Business Standard, Ajay Shah writes:
“Steps towards the perfect GST” (with Vijay Kelkar and Arbind Modi). In this article, they assess the new GST reforms that reduce the number of tax slabs from seven to five and move most goods and services to the two lowest slabs. They argue that despite these positive developments in simplifying the taxation system, a low single-rate at about 12% is the ideal GST for India. They also highlight how current input tax credit restrictions disadvantage MSMEs and recommend including electricity in GST while keeping petroleum under a separate carbon tax.
“State action to combat digital fraud: A strategic view” (with Nandkumar Saravade). In this article, they discuss the recent surge in sophisticated digital criminal fraud in India. Currently, fraud victims bear all losses while banks, telecoms, and law enforcement pass responsibility and lack incentives to solve the problem. To address this systemic failure, they propose three reforms: First, shifting financial liability to firms who can best improve security. Second, creating coordinated action across fragmented government agencies and third, establishing an expert group to develop a national strategy to address such fraud.
VIDEOS AND PODCASTS
New episodes of our YouTube show Big Ideas -
Can India solve its judicial backlog by promoting arbitration as a shortcut? In episode 52 of Big Ideas, Dr. Shubho Roy speaks to Siddarth Raman about why this popular approach is flawed. He argues that a strong, functioning judiciary is not an alternative to arbitration but it’s essential foundation.
In episode 53, Srikanth Vishwanathan and Krishnan S speak with Siddarth Raman about why India's cities are failing due to a lack of political accountability. They argue for more decentralisation and propose a new model of governance to improve city planning and that also makes leaders directly answerable.
In this video, Dr. Sujata Kelkar Shetty talks to Pavithra Manivannan about the key ideas in her book "Resilience Decoded: What Every Parent Should Know About Teen Mental Health"
You can buy the book here.
New episodes of Ajay Shah’s YouTube show Everything is Everything with Amit Varma are out:
How Much Wealth Do You Need to Retire, Ep 110;
The Wonders of FDI Ep 111;
The Future of War Ep 112;
What’s Wrong with the Indian Media? Ep 113;
What Should India Do? Ep 114
EVENTS
We hosted,
The 15th Indian Legal System Reform Seminar on 18th August 2025:
Rahul Hemrajani of the National Law School of India University presented on “Indian Legal Scholarship Indexing Project (ILSIP).”
Rikhil Bhavani, Saloni Bhogale, and Amit S. Jadhav of the University of Wisconsin-Madison presented their work titled “Musical Chairs: How Frequent Judge Transfers Shape Judicial Decision-Making in India.”
Upcoming,
We are hosting a talk by Shekhar Hari Kumar on "Trade Wars, De-Dollarisation and Decoupling: Macro themes for the roaring 2020s" on 8th September 2025.
The talk will give a practitioner's perspective on cyclical and structural factors underpinning the trade war and global realignments set in motion by President Trump.
The event is hybrid and free. Register here to attend.
XKDR Forum is an interdisciplinary research and policy organisation harnessing knowledge and capabilities across diverse fields of economics, law, public administration, engineering, statistics and science. We welcome your comments and suggestions on our work.